TX – — Texas’s population grew by nearly 4 million people over the last decade, more than any other state in the nation, and the state is on track to gain two seats in Congress as its national influence continues to expand.
Texas had more than 29 million residents in 2020, according to new population data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Monday, an increase of 3.9 million, the biggest in the nation. The state will also gain more seats in Congress than any other as seven states, including California and New York, are set to lose seats.
It was the second decade in a row that Texas had led the nation in population growth. And while the increase was smaller than the 4.3 million residents gained from 2000 to 2010, Texas’s rate of increase still outpaced all other states but Utah and Idaho.
“The influence of Texas will grow, more than that of any other state,” said Mark P. Jones, a political scientist at Rice University.
That growing clout will only further the outside interest in the state’s elections, which saw an unprecedented level of money flowing in from other states in 2020.
While the figures released on Monday don’t drill down into demographics, estimates until now have shown communities of color and young people drove the vast majority of the population growth in Texas — something progressive groups were touting on Monday.
“This is only likely to raise interest in the state as it’s already becoming increasingly competitive,” said Joshua Blank, manager of polling and research at the University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project.
The national results are largely good news for Republicans, experts said, as red states, including Texas and Florida, will gain the most congressional seats and electoral votes, which are also based on population, while blue states, including California and New York, are set to lose them.
The shift comes as Democrats hold just a six-seat majority in the House. With Republicans mounting an effort to take control in the midterms, Texas — where the GOP controls redistricting — will almost certainly be key to those efforts.
But the new population figures also reflect the shifting politics of many states, including Texas, which has grown more competitive as its demographics have shifted and residents have moved from other states, including California.
“Right now, the nation is witnessing seismic change in Texas,” said Charlie Bonner, a spokesman for MOVE Texas, a group focused on mobilizing young voters. “Long overlooked, our eligible voters — be they young, disenfranchised, marginalized or minority — are driving growth and building political power from the ground up.”
The final census figures also put the state’s growth below what the bureau had estimated, leading some to question whether there was an undercount fueled by the pandemic, former President Donald Trump’s failed effort to include a citizenship question, and Texas Republicans’ decision not to spend money on a public campaign pushing the census. Texas was just 190,000 residents shy of gaining a third seat.
“We’ll have to wait for more granular data, but it certainly looks like the Texas Legislature’s decision not to budget money to encourage census participation combined with the Trump administration efforts to add a citizenship question cost Texas a congressional district,” noted Michael Li, an expert on redistricting who serves as senior counsel for the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.
Census Bureau officials said Monday they were confident in the results, noting the state’s actual population was within 1 percent of the estimates.
The new population figures come as lawmakers in Texas prepare to redraw political boundaries, including for the state’s congressional delegation, which will remain the second-biggest in the nation as it adds two more members, for a total of 38. That trails California, which is set to lose a seat for the first time in state history, and will have 52 members.
Republicans will control the redistricting process and are expected to use it to reinforce their control of the delegation.
Jones at Rice University said the party now just has to decide how safe or risky it wants to be with the new seats. Republicans can play it safer by tossing the new districts to Democrats while shoring up GOP votes in the 22 seats they hold now, which would keep them in control of the delegation. Or they could use the new seats to break up Democrat districts and try to gain ground.
One Texas Democrat in Congress, U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of San Antonio, was already warning against gerrymandering attempts. Doggett’s district, which stretches from Austin to San Antonio, has been called one of the most gerrymandered in the nation.
“With these two additions, there is no valid reason for Texas Republicans to engage again in extreme partisan gerrymandering that distorts the true diversity of our state and divides communities of interest, though there is every reason to believe that, in the current political climate, they will,” Doggett said in a statement. “Extreme gerrymandering dilutes our democracy and just means that representatives are less accessible and less accountable for both Republicans and Democrats.”
Li expects the two additional seats to bring “demands for increased representation of communities of color, which will be at odds with the party that will control redistricting.”
Li said chances are high that the maps Texas Republicans draw will end up in court for that exact reason, something that has happened each of the last five decades.
“That’s almost a certainty,” Li said. “Every decade, Texas’s maps get changed a little or a lot because it’s never managed to fairly treat communities of color.”
But it’s not just control of Congress on the line. The population figures are also used to dole out funding for federal programs like the Children’s Health Insurance Program. And a larger state delegation will give Texas more sway in D.C.
“The larger your home state’s delegation, the more power you should be able to wield,” said Renée Cross, senior director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. “Oftentimes that power is bipartisan.”
